The 2026 Ballon d’Or campaign has arrived with a twist: Lionel Messi is still in the race. Not as the overwhelming favorite, not as a longshot, but as a player whose legacy is now inextricably tied to the idea that even at 39, he can rewrite the rules of the game’s most prestigious individual award. Two of his Argentina teammates—both World Cup winners themselves—have publicly tipped him to claim a record-extending ninth Golden Ball, a statement that carries weight in a jury system where trophies and titles are the currency of influence.
Messi’s case is built on two pillars: his World Cup performance and his continued dominance in MLS. In Qatar, he became the competition’s all-time leading scorer with eight goals, a feat that briefly overshadowed Kylian Mbappé’s record before the Frenchman’s final-minute strike in the final. But it was more than just numbers—it was Messi’s ability to elevate Argentina’s midfield, dictate tempo, and deliver in the biggest moments, a role that has defined his career. His MLS Cup triumph with Inter Miami in 2025-26—where he finished with 24 goals and 30 assists—proved he remains a creative force, even if the league’s competitive balance has shifted. The jury will scrutinize these achievements, but they will also weigh the context: a World Cup final loss to Spain, a club season that didn’t culminate in a major trophy, and a midfield that has seen younger stars like Rodri and Fabián Ruiz emerge as contenders in their own right.
The odds reflect the uncertainty. At +2,200, Messi is the longest-priced favorite in a field that now includes 19-year-old Lamine Yamal, a player whose rise at Barcelona has been nothing short of meteoric. The jury’s history suggests they favor winners of major tournaments—only four Ballon d’Or winners since 2007 haven’t lifted a Champions League, World Cup, or continental trophy in the same year, and three of those were Messi himself. Yet this year, the competition is deeper. Rodri’s midfield mastery at Manchester City, Fabián Ruiz’s defensive brilliance at PSG, and even Ousmane Dembélé’s 2025 triumph—won after a Champions League victory—have set a new standard. The question isn’t whether Messi can still win; it’s whether the jury will finally acknowledge that his greatest achievements might not be tied to trophies, but to the way he redefined what it means to be a world-class player.
What makes this campaign different is the absence of the Messi-Ronaldo duopoly. The two-time Ballon d’Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo’s influence on the jury has waned, and the prize now feels more contested than ever. Harry Kane’s goal-scoring machine at Bayern Munich, Erling Haaland’s relentless efficiency at Manchester City, and even Jude Bellingham’s emergence as a complete midfielder all add layers to a debate that once felt like a foregone conclusion. But Messi’s argument is timeless: he has spent 18 years proving that greatness isn’t measured in trophies alone, but in the way he changes the game. If the jury is ready to recognize that, he could become the first player in history to win the Ballon d’Or in three different decades.
