The Ballon d’Or organizers are preparing to unveil the long list of nominees for the 2026 awards, and some former winners are unlikely to go on and win the prize again. Usually, it is made up of 30 players that are up for the biggest individual prize in football. That list is then whittled down to 10 names, from which the top three and eventual winner will be announced. Lionel Messi, for example, won’t be taking the award home this year, despite being the Argentina maestro with the highest number of wins in history, with 8 awards to his name. His failure to win the 2026 World Cup essentially means he’s out of the running for the Ballon d’Or.
Cristiano Ronaldo, who won his last Ballon d’Or in 2017, also won’t be making a surprise appearance next month. Since moving to Juventus, Manchester United, and Al-Nassr, the Portugal captain has failed to make it to the top three. Ousmane Dembele, the current Ballon d’Or winner, won’t be named back-to-back winner either, despite clinching the UEFA Champions League and Ligue 1 titles with Paris Saint-Germain. The 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, Rodri, has backed his Spain teammate Lamine Yamal to win the award in the future, but Rodri himself won’t be winning it again this year.
The World Cup has had a significant impact on the Ballon d’Or race, with voters potentially favoring a player from the victorious nation. This could affect players like Harry Kane, who might lose out because of the World Cup factor. Lamine Yamal and Kane are currently at the front of the field, with Yamal at 33.1 percent and Kane at 32.9 percent, according to Polymarket prices. Messi, on the other hand, has seen his price collapse to 4.7 percent after Argentina’s 1-0 World Cup final loss to Spain. The trigger was not a rumor or a leak, but 90-plus minutes of football that reordered the entire race in real time.
The Ballon d’Or has a long history, dating back to 1956, and it’s interesting to note that no European team has won the World Cup without having multiple Ballon d’Or winners. Teams like Belgium, Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey have been eliminated, and countries that produce the best players in the world also tend to have successful teams. Winning a World Cup often leads to a Ballon d’Or win, but this rule still applies without those instances. As the 2026 Ballon d’Or approaches, it’s clear that a new crop of players will be in the running for the top prize, and former winners like Messi, Ronaldo, Dembele, and Rodri will be watching from the sidelines.
The road to the 2026 Ballon d’Or is filled with talented players, and it will be exciting to see who emerges as the winner. With the World Cup factor in play, it’s likely that a player from the winning nation will be favored, but other players like Pedri, Erling Haaland, and Mbappe are also in the running. As the list of nominees is finalized, fans will be eagerly awaiting the announcement of the top three and eventual winner. The 2026 Ballon d’Or is shaping up to be an exciting and unpredictable award, and it will be interesting to see who takes home the prize this year.
